Verification of sectoral cloud motion based direct normal irradiance nowcasting from satellite imagery

The successful integration of solar electricity from photovoltaics or concentrating solar power plants into the existing electricity supply requires an electricity production forecast for 48 hours, while any improved surface irradiance forecast over the next upcoming hours is relevant for an optimized operation of the power plant. While numerical weather prediction has been widely assessed and is in commercial use, the short-term nowcasting is still a major field of development. European Commission’s FP7 DNICast project is especially focusing on this task and this paper reports about parts of DNICast results. A nowcasting scheme based on Meteosat Second Generation cloud imagery and cloud movement tracking has been developed for Southern Spain as part of a solar production forecasting tool (CSP-FoSyS). It avoids the well-known, but not really satisfying standard cloud motion vector approach by using a sectoral approach and asking the question at which time any cloud structure will affect the power plant. I...