Particle filtering in a seirv simulation model of H1N1 influenza

Numerous studies have been conducted using simulation models to predict the epidemiological spread of H1N1 and understand intervention trade-offs. However, existing models are generally not very accurate in H1N1 model predictions. In this report, we examine the impact of using particle filtering in a compartmental SEIRV (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered and vaccinated) model which considers the impact of vaccination on the outbreak in the province of Manitoba. For the purpose of evaluating the performance of the particle filtering method, this work further compares the ability of particle filtering and traditional calibration to anticipate the evolution of the outbreak. Preliminary simulated results indicate that the particle filtering approach outperforms the calibration method in terms of the discrepancy between empirical data and model data.