A fine-resolution estimation of the biomass resource potential across China from 2020 to 2100

Abstract Large-scale development of bioenergy is indispensable in dealing with the climate change challenge. The biomass resource may become a limiting factor for the utilization of bioenergy in mitigating carbon emissions in the future. For supporting formulating a feasible long-term strategy for bioenergy development, it is crucial to conduct an ex-ante estimation of the biomass resource potential and accurately capture its variability at fine resolution. Although many previous studies have been carried out to estimate biomass resource potential, there is still a lack of a systematic assessment of the long-term spatio-temporal distribution of resource potential of multiple domestic biomasses in the context of future changes of human and natural factors. To address this research gap, this study proposed a comprehensive framework coupled with the crop growth models, RS-GIS methods, statistical downscaling, and multi-source dataset to evaluate the biomass resource potential and its variability across China at 1-km resolution from 2020 to 2100. This study identified the suitable areas for bioenergy development in the future, and analyzed the impact of climate change and land use change on biomass resource potential. This study also explored the role of bioenergy potential playing in China's energy supply under the temperature rise control target. Results indicate that the bioenergy potential of residues and energy crops in China will reach 5.11–11.01 EJ in China in 2100, only accounting for 5.3%-12.2% of the national primary energy supply demand in 2100.