Navigational risk factor analysis of Arctic shipping in ice-covered waters

Abstract Typical navigational risks in Arctic ice-covered waters, such as a ship stuck in ice and collision accidents (ice-ship collision and ship-icebreaker collision), are to be identified and estimated, which are defined as three typical accident scenarios in Arctic ice-covered waters. In this study, models of stuck ships and collision accidents were developed and analyzed to identify and classify the factors influencing these risks. The chapter first identifies navigational risk factors using the HFACS-based ship collision risk analysis model, and the test mining approach based on accident reports and scientific literature. Then, the fault tree analysis is utilized to analyze the fundamental risk factors contributing to three typical accident scenarios based on the historical accident procedure. Finally, the chapter presents the findings of a qualitative analysis carried out to analyze navigational risk factors, in the context of three typical accident scenarios. The navigational risk factors in different scenarios are proposed by comparative analysis. The chapter concludes by providing theoretical guidance for ice navigation in risk control and safety management.