Capacity study for solid biomass facilities - scenarios for supply and demand of solid biomass for electricity and heat generation in north west Europe

Background: The growing awareness for climate change and security of supply leads to a increasing share of renewable energy in which biomass plays an important role. Especially in the European Union (EU-27), where member states have agreed on a binding target of a 20% renewable energy share of total energy consumption by 2020 (Renewable Energy Directive, 2009/28/EC), biomass use for bioenergy is expected to grow substantially. Moreover, the gap between domestic supply and domestic demand is growing, resulting in increasing imports of solid biomass from both EU and non-EU countries. In northwest Europe, sea ports play an important role because they provide access to (inter-continental) sources of biomass from countries with domestic supply exceeding domestic demand (for example Canada, US, Russia). To facilitate further growth of bulk solid biomass trade, the Port of Rotterdam wants to stimulate the development of a Biomass Hub concept. Insight is therefore required in the current and future biomass trade flows and the potential role of ports as a result of biomass use in northwest Europe. Objectives and approach: This study aims to quantify potential trade flows used for heat and electricity generation in the captive and contestable hinterland of Rotterdam to 2030. Countries considered relevant for solid biomass trade in the port of Rotterdam region are the Netherlands as well as Belgium, Denmark Germany and the United Kingdom (northwest Europe). To assess the potential trade flows of solid biomass, first scenarios are developed based on existing model projections and biomass resource assessments. This report (Report I), describes the background data and the scenarios. The second report (Report II) will include a more detailed assessment of the biomass supply potentials in key supply regions in the world such as Brazil, the US and Russia. Furthermore, the demand of solid biomass in northwest Europe will be assessed in more detail to update the scenarios with actual market and policy information. It is therefore possible that the demand, as described in this report, based on existing scenario projections, will deviate from the final scenario projections in Report II that will include more actual details. For example, plans for co-firing in northwest Europe have been changed in the last years. Therefore, these scenarios will be complemented with available market information on plant level in northwest Europe.