Multi-Parameters Water Quality Model Uncertainty Analysis

Based on the water quality index interaction of WASP model and the finite volume method, two-dimensional coupling model of water quantity and water quality was established. Then a random function module was added into the model having Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) function. Using GLUE method analyzes the uncertainty and sensitivity of the established model. The results show that organic sedimentation rate VS3 is the most sensitive to total nitrogen changes, and its sensitive value range is 0.03-0.07m/d, while the influence of other parameters isnt obvious. By using the combinations of obtained sensitive parameters, the total nitrogen variation of Taihu Lake is simulated. The results are all within the 95% confidence interval, which explains that the model is reasonable.