Influence of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature on the Genesis of Gulf Stream Cyclones

AbstractThis study investigates the relationship between tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability and cyclogenesis over the Gulf Stream region of the North Atlantic. A cyclone identification scheme and Lagrangian trajectories are used to compare preferred cyclogenesis locations and precyclogenesis flow paths associated with three patterns of tropical Pacific SST variability: eastern Pacific (EP) El Nino, central Pacific (CP) El Nino, and La Nina. During EP El Nino and La Nina winters, the upper-level precyclogenesis flow takes a subtropical path over North America and Gulf Stream cyclogenesis predominantly occurs under the North Atlantic jet entrance, which is the climatologically preferred location. In contrast, during CP El Nino winters, when the warmest SST anomalies occur in the central tropical Pacific, the precyclogenesis flow takes a northern path across North America and Gulf Stream cyclogenesis tends to occur farther north under the jet exit. The shift in preferred cyclogenesis ...