Simulation of the covid19 epidemic in France

We simulate the evolution of the covid19 epidemic in France on a computer. With approximately 10,000 simulations performed with random epidemic parameters, we obtain a value of the basic reproductive number R0 = 7.5 with a confidence interval (CrI) 6.4-8.6 (for the standard deviation). For the mortality rate (infection fatality ratio), we get IFR = 3.1% (CrI: 1.6-4.7). 2 During the social distancing period (March 9-March 16), we get R0 = 2.14. For the lockdown period, which started on March 17, we obtain R0 = 0.88 (CrI: 0.74-1.02). We can conclude that lockdown will not stop the epidemic, and that releasing it will cause a new outbreak. With these values, the simulations carried out give a number of infected persons of approximately 650,000 currently (1% of the population) and predict limits of 1 million infected persons (1.6% of the population) and 30 000 deaths, limits reached in about 1 year, and almost reached in about 5 months. Every day we make new simulations using daily datas, and new results are sumarized here: https://cp.lpmib.fr/medias/covid19/synthesis_last.html. The code is available here: https://github.com/loicpottier/covid19