A NEW MODIFICATIONS OF THE SIR/SEIR MODELS WITH ”INTERVENTION POLYNOMIAL FACTOR”. METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS

We develop a novel modification of the classic Kermack–McKendrickSIR (Susceptible–Infectious–Recovered) model. The new SIR model with ”interventionpolynomial factor” (SIR-IPF) can be used successfully to model and play differentscenarios for the infectious disease spread. A generalized ”reproduction number” isintroduced. A similar modifications are proposed for the classic SEIR and G-SEIRmodels. The specialists working in the field of ”reaction-kinetic mechanisms” have theword. Numerical examples, illustrating our results are given using CAS Mathematica.