Validation of a ground motion synthesis and prediction methodology for the 1988, M=6.0, Saguenay Earthquake

We model the 1988, M=6.0, Saguenay earthquake. We utilize an approach that has been developed to predict strong ground motion. this approach involves developing a set of rupture scenarios based upon bounds on rupture parameters. rupture parameters include rupture geometry, hypocenter, rupture roughness, rupture velocity, healing velocity (rise times), slip distribution, asperity size and location, and slip vector. Scenario here refers to specific values of these parameters for an hypothesized earthquake. Synthetic strong ground motion are then generated for each rupture scenario. A sufficient number of scenarios are run to span the variability in strong ground motion due to the source uncertainties. By having a suite of rupture scenarios of hazardous earthquakes for a fixed magnitude and identifying the hazard to the site from the one standard deviation value of engineering parameters we have introduced a probabilistic component to the deterministic hazard calculation, For this study we developed bounds on rupture scenarios from previous research on this earthquake. The time history closest to the observed ground motion was selected as a model for the Saguenay earthquake.