The benefits and costs of flattening the curve for COVID-19

We examine the net benefits of social distancing to slow the spread of COVID-19 in the United States. Social distancing saves lives but imposes large costs on society due to reduced economic activity. We use an SIR model to perform a benefit-cost analysis of controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. Assuming that social distancing measures can substantially reduce contacts among individuals, we find net benefits of roughly $5 trillion in our benchmark scenario. We examine the magnitude of the critical parameters that would lead to negative net benefits. A key unknown factor is the time to economic recovery with and without social distancing measures in place. Our sensitivity analysis points to a need for effective economic stimulus when the outbreak has passed.