Using Spatial and Seasonal Panel Model to Determine Impact of Climatic Factors on Maize Yields in Serbia

Maize production significantly contributes to the growth in crop production and Serbian agriculture in general. The climate in Serbia can be described as temperate continental, which favourably affects the output of crop production lines. However, temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation is uneven. According to the projections of global climate changes in the region of Southern Europe (increase in air temperatures, prolonged heat waves, decrease in precipitation and intensive droughts), crop producers could expect increased damage to their plants. The main goal of the paper is to evaluate the impact of climate factors on maize yields in Serbia, by substituting the irrigation effects with empirical longitudinal panel data on different climatic conditions (temperature, rainfall and extra-terrestrial radiation), altitudes and share of maize in the total arable land of selected municipalities. The research led us to conclusions: water shortage is statistically significant in the second phenophase; irrigation of arable land at altitudes above 200 m does not result in growth of average maize yield; the growth of temperature by 1° C above 30° C during the vegetative period results in decrease of maize yields; 1 mm increase in water deficit in phenophase 2 leads to reduction in maize yields; increase in planted acreage by one percentage point results in reduction in maize yield per hectare.