Exploring adaptation options for a region nominally favoured by climate change - a Tasmanian case study

Although geographically small, Tasmanian regional climates & farming systems are diverse (Fig. 1), affected by different synoptic influences, & the impacts of changes in climate variables will likely vary across them. A regional assessment of the impacts under a range of general circulation models & emission scenarios has identified the scope for positive yield gains in some crops & pastures due largely to a warming trend, & reduction in frost events (Holz et al. 2010). This affects the scope for changing the geographic domain of some existing crops & pastures, or possibly introducing new ones with consequent effects on enterprise structures & productivity patterns Tasmanian agriculture has a farm gate value of ~$1,100m or 5% of gross State product the largest % for any State with post-farm activities contribute ~ 11% to gross State product. Changes to production, including from climate change, are of considerable significance. The sector, dominated by crop-livestock farms, is structurally diverse & regionally influenced by edaphic, climatic & infrastructure constraints & opportunities. Agricultural production is particularly sensitive to climate variability & potential changes in the baseline climate. Neil MacLeod1, David Parsons2, David Phelan2 & Shaun Lisson3