Research on the Impact of Various Emission Reduction Policies on China’s Iron and Steel Industry Production and Economic Level under the Carbon Trading Mechanism

To study the emission reduction policies’ impact on the production and economic level of the steel industry, this paper constructs a two-stage dynamic game model and analyzes various emission reduction policies’ impact on the steel industry and enterprises. New results are observed in the study: (1) With the increasing emission reduction target (15%–30%) and carbon quota trading price (12.65–137.59 Yuan), social welfare and producer surplus show an increasing trend and emission macro losses show a decreasing trend. (2) Enterprises’ reduction ranges in northwestern and southwestern regions are much higher than that of the other regions; the northeastern enterprise has the smallest reductions range. (3) When the market is balanced (0.8543–0.9320 billion tons), the steel output has decreased and the polarization in various regions has been alleviated to some extent. The model is the abstraction and assumption of reality, which makes the results have some deviations. However, these will provide references to formulate reasonable emissions reduction and production targets. In addition, the government needs to consider the whole and regional balance and carbon trading benchmark value when deciding the implementation of a single or mixed policy. Future research will be more closely linked to national policies and gradually extended to other high-energy industries.