Prediction models for the abundance of overwintered adult brown-winged green bugs, Plautia stali (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae), using male flower production of sugi, Cryptomeria japonica (Pinales: Cupressaceae), and aggregation-pheromone-trap captures

The abundance of the adult brown-winged green bug, Plautia stali Scott, varies annually. During outbreaks, P. stali causes severe damage to various fruit crops. Therefore, predicting its abundance beforehand is important. In this study, we constructed multiple regression models to predict the abundance of overwintered adult P. stali in Chiba Prefecture, Japan, by using the accumulated aggregation-pheromone-trap captures of P. stali and the male flower production of sugi Cryptomeria japonica (Thunb. ex L.f.) D. Don, which relates to cone production, from 1998 to 2016. The abundance of overwintered adults in the present year can be predicted by male C. japonica flower production and the abundance of P. stali adults in the previous year. The models are highly precise and can calculate estimates in August for the abundance in the next year, which is far enough in advance for the application of control measures. These models also indicate intraspecific competition for food resources in P. stali.