Impact of Climate Change on Foodgrain Yields in India

In India, agriculture accounts for about sixty percent of employment. How would climate change, that is expected to hit agriculture in poorer countries very hard, affect India's agriculture? We study the impact of climate change on the mean and variance of yields of three food grains — rice (India's major crop), sorghum and pearl millet — at the district level using a panel data set for 1966-2002. An agricultural production function is estimated with exogenous climate variables -- precipitation and temperature -- controlling for other non climate inputs. To capture the impact of climate extremes, climate variables are modelled as anomalies. The results show that climate change adversely affects mean and variance of crop yields. Rice yields are found to be sensitive to rainfall extremes, extremely high temperatures increase sorghum yield variability, with pearl millet yields invariant to both rainfall and temperature extremes.