Modelación probabilista para la gestión del riesgo de desastre

This publication contains a summary description of probabilistic modeling of disaster risk that can be generated as a result of natural hazards. Both conceptual bases are presented as a series of applications for the purpose of risk management in the context of planning socio-economic and sustainable development. Special emphasis is put on the case and the seismic risk as a result of urban flooding and landslides. Without going into technical details the criteria which should make inventories of buildings and infrastructure exposed to hazardous events, the overall analysis of exposure, vulnerability assessment of the different components of infrastructure and risk estimation in terms of physical damage, economic loss and population effects are posed. Several cases of application of probabilistic risk assessment are also presented: Alternative display parameters and indicators of hazard, exposure and risk; risk indicators and management risk; risk in urban and regional planning, cost-benefit analysis works prevention and mitigation, and damage scenarios for planning purposes of addressing the emergency after a disaster warning systems and immediate damage estimate and analysis risk from the financial point of view for protection, financing, retention and transfer. These applications are illustrated with real cases that have been developed over the last fifteen years with the participation of the authors on projects in Bogota (Colombia). The aim of this paper is to illustrate a number of actual cases of risk analysis that lead to actions of disaster risk management, in order that the technical community related to the subject, as public officials and decision makers aware of the benefits of having appropriate information and relevant results interpreted risk analysis conducted from a probabilistic perspective. The main purpose of this book, therefore, is not to go into the technical details of mathematical or actuarial models used, but to pose a different conceptual approach to applications and illustrate the results and applications made in an urban center for management purposes. Finally, it is hoped that this publication will encourage the use of these assessment methodologies in developing countries, with a view to raising public awareness about disaster risk taking based on a technical and scientific guidance to permit detailed assessment of threats, vulnerabilities and the possible consequences of that.