Comprehensive flood economic losses: review of the potential damage and implementation of an agricultural impact model

With an annual loss averaging 580 M€ between 1990 and 2014, floods are the main natural catastrophe (Nat Cat) risk for the French Nat Cat compensation scheme. As part of its role in this scheme, the Caisse Centrale de Reassurance (CCR) offers state guaranteed reinsurance programs and has been modelling the risk of flooding since 2003. This model is based on the traditional valuation approach of direct tangible costs which pairs a physical model with exposure through damage curves. CCR wishes now to widen the studied damage scope to insured and noninsured economic costs and has been collaborating with the SAF research laboratory from the Institute of Financial and Insurance Sciences (ISFA) since 2014. CCR’s model has been used to estimate the insured direct damage to residential and non-residential properties and it is now being developed to include damage to vehicles, agriculture and network infrastructures. Research is also being carried out to take into account business interruptions and indirect losses using an Input-Output model. This article describes the undergoing work on model development to estimate the damage to agriculture.