Analyzing and predicting network public opinion evolution based on group persuasion force of populism

Abstract The classic individual opinion interaction model, which can effectively explore rule of Individual interaction and trend of public opinion evolution, is frequently used to study evolution of network public opinion, On basis of that, we adopt populism tendency of individual to improve opinion discrepancy threshold and optimize traditional rules of individual opinion interactive. Furthermore, we propose creatively expression of improving group persuasion force based on populism. On this foundation, GPF-NP model is constructed to analyze and predict evolution of opinions of netizens in network populism events. By simulation, we draw conclusion that scale of non-extreme populism play a vital role in evolution of network public opinion. Finally, some proposals are proposed from the simulation result to guide or prevent development of network negative public opinion.