Estimating Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) over Rice–Wheat-Rotation Croplands by Using the Random Forest Model and Eddy Covariance Measurements: Upscaling and Comparison with the MODIS Product

Despite advances in remote sensing–based gross primary productivity (GPP) modeling, the calibration of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) GPP product (GPPMOD) is less well understood over rice–wheat-rotation cropland. To improve the performance of GPPMOD, a random forest (RF) machine learning model was constructed and employed over the rice–wheat double-cropping fields of eastern China. The RF-derived GPP (GPPRF) agreed well with the eddy covariance (EC)-derived GPP (GPPEC), with a coefficient of determination of 0.99 and a root-mean-square error of 0.42 g C m−2 d−1. Therefore, it was deemed reliable to upscale GPPEC to regional scales through the RF model. The upscaled cumulative seasonal GPPRF was higher for rice (924 g C m−2) than that for wheat (532 g C m−2). By comparing GPPMOD and GPPEC, we found that GPPMOD performed well during the crop rotation periods but underestimated GPP during the rice/wheat active growth seasons. Furthermore, GPPMOD was calibrated by GPPRF, and the error range of GPPMOD (GPPRF minus GPPMOD) was found to be 2.5–3.25 g C m−2 d−1 for rice and 0.75–1.25 g C m−2 d−1 for wheat. Our findings suggest that RF-based GPP products have the potential to be applied in accurately evaluating MODIS-based agroecosystem carbon cycles at regional or even global scales.