Modelling of settlements-dynamics by object-oriented image and change detection analysis on Tenerife.

Since the 1960’s the island Tenerife is characterized by an increasing tourism – about 4.9 mio. accommodate tourists in 2003 – which causes a lasting change of the socio-economic situation and a rural exodus. On account of this development the situation of land cover and land use changed in the same time: Fallow land, land wasting and decreasing settlements are some of the main consequences. This leads to a growing necessity of geoecological analysis and to an increasing demand for an adequate monitoring database. An interface connection between remote sensing and geoecological information systems (GEIS) is used to analyse the spatial pattern and its spatial temporal changes of land use on Tenerife from end of the 70s to the present in different scales. An object-oriented image analysis technique has been applied to classify the LANDSAT MSS 3and ETM+ 7-data as well as orthophotos. Based on these results, an in pair post-classification method was used to detect spatial and categorical land use and land cover changes for the basis of a monitoring system. Different socioeconomic data types have been clipped within GEIS and correlated with the results of the land cover land use changes to derive the interface between natural conditions and human influence. Based on the data of the preceding development of changes of settlements and non-built up areas and of changes in socioeconomic conditions a regional environmental model is created to forecast the development of settlements in about 25 years and to analyse the vulnerability of natural ecosystems to humaninduced changes.