PolSIRD: Modeling Epidemic Spread under Intervention Policies and an Application to the Spread of COVID-19

Epidemic spread in a population is traditionally modeled via compartmentalized models which represent the free evolution of disease in absence of any intervention policies. In addition, these models assume full observability and do not account for under-reporting of cases. We present a mathematical model, namely PolSIRD, which accounts for the under-reporting by introducing an observation mechanism. It also captures the effects of intervention policies on the disease spread parameters by leveraging intervention policy data along with the reported disease cases. Furthermore, we allow our recurrent model to learn the initial hidden state of all compartments end-to-end along with other parameters via gradient-based training. We apply our model to spread of the recent global outbreak of COVID-19 where our model outperforms the current methods employed by the CDC in most of the metrics. We also provide actionable guidance on the lifting of intervention policies via counterfactual simulations from our model.