Analysis of Individual Risk Belief Structures

An interactive computer program developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is presented as a methodology to model individualized belief structures. The logic and general strategy of the model are presented for two risk topics: AIDS and toxic waste. Subjects identified desirable and undesirable consequences for each topic and formulated an associative rule linking topic and consequence in either a causal or a correlational framework. Likelihood estimates, generated by subjects in several formats (probability, odds statements, etc.), constituted one outcome measure. Additionally, source of belief (personal experience, news media, etc.) and perceived personal and societal impact are reviewed. Briefly, subjects believe that AIDS causes significant emotional problems, and to a lesser degree, physical health problems, whereas toxic waste causes significant environmental problems.