Was Venus Ever Habitable? Constraints from a Coupled Interior–Atmosphere–Redox Evolution Model

Venus's past climate evolution is uncertain. General circulation model simulations permit a habitable climate as late as ~0.7 Ga, and there is suggestive-albeit inconclusive-evidence for previous liquid water from surface geomorphology and mineralogy. However, it is unclear whether a habitable past can be reconciled with Venus's inferred atmospheric evolution. In particular, the lack of leftover atmospheric oxygen argues against recent water loss. Here, we apply a fully coupled model of Venus's atmospheric-interior-climate evolution from post-accretion magma ocean to present. The model self-consistently tracks C-, H-, and O-bearing volatiles and surface climate through the entirety of Venus's history. Atmospheric escape, mantle convection, melt production, outgassing, deep water cycling, and carbon cycling are explicitly coupled to climate and redox evolution. Plate tectonic and stagnant lid histories are considered. Using this coupled model, we conclude that both a habitable Venusian past and one where Venus never possessed liquid surface water can be reconciled with known constraints. Specifically, either scenario can reproduce bulk atmospheric composition, inferred surface heat flow, and observed $^{40}$Ar and $^{4}$He. Moreover, the model suggests that Venus could have been habitable with a ~100 m global ocean as late as 1 Ga, without violating any known constraints. In fact, if diffusion-limited water loss is throttled by a cool, CO$_2$-dominated upper atmosphere, then a habitable past is tentatively favored by our model. This escape throttling makes it difficult to simultaneously recover negligible water vapor and ~90 bar CO$_2$ in the modern atmosphere without temporarily sequestering carbon in the interior via silicate weathering to enhance H escape.