Rapid Probabilistic Estimation of Type Ia Supernovae Explosion Parameters I: Single Epoch Spectrum of SN 2002bo.

Manual fits to spectral times series of Type Ia supernovae have provided a method of reconstructing the explosion from a parametric model but due to lack of information about model uncertainties or parameter degeneracies direct comparison between theory and observation is difficult. We present a probabilistic reconstruction of the normal Type Ia supernova SN2002bo. A single epoch spectrum, taken 10 days before maximum light, is fit by a 13-parameter model describing the elemental composition of the ejecta and the explosion physics (density, temperature, velocity, and explosion epoch). Model evaluation is performed through the application of a novel rapid spectral synthesis technique in which the radiative transfer code, TARDIS, is accelerated by a machine-learning framework. Analysis of the posterior distribution reveals a complex and degenerate parameter space and allows direct comparison to various hydrodynamic models. Our analysis favors detonation over deflagration scenarios and we find that our technique offers a novel way to compare simulation to observation.