How does the preference heterogeneity affect the elderly's evaluation of bus accessibility? Evidence from Guangzhou, China

Abstract Introduction The elderly population in China relies heavily on public transit. The ability of the elderly to access public transit services is linked to their social participation. However, public transit does not address many of the needs of the elderly, and research on the accessibility of public transit for the elderly is insufficient, especially in developing countries such as China. The novelty of this study is that it analyzes the elderly's demographic characteristics, latent variables, and heterogeneity in order to evaluate the accessibility of public transit. It also deepens an understanding of the elderly's travel behavior. Methods The primary data for this study were drawn from a survey in Guangzhou, China. A confirmatory factor analysis was used to obtain the elderly's latent variables. After that, a latent-class logit model (LCM) was used to analyze the elderly's travel behavior. LCM avoids the shortcomings of the traditional multinomial logit model (MNL), and avoids shortcomings when segmenting travelers with arbitrary demographic characteristics. Results Using the latent-class logit model, the elderly could be classified into two latent classes: the walking-preference subgroup and the walking-adverse subgroup. These two latent classes accounted for 38.3% and 61.7% of the total interviewed subjects, respectively. Taking in-vehicle time as a reference, it was found that 1 min of walking time was equivalent to 0.36 and 2.82 min of in-vehicle time for these two latent classes, respectively. This reflected a significant difference. The study assessed several demographic characteristics: gender, education, pension amount, electric bicycle ownership, bus use frequency, and the elderly's psychological effects (perceived physical functioning and psychological factors towards physical activity) in the latent-class logit model. These factors significantly impacted the classification of the latent class at a 10% confidence level. Conclusion The elderly rely heavily on public transit in China's cities. As such, urban planners should consider the needs of the elderly, and should consider the findings of this study in developing a more comfortable public transit system.