Reconciling Simulated Ensembles of Apomyoglobin with Experimental Hydrogen/Deuterium Exchange Data Using Bayesian Inference and Multiensemble Markov State Models

Hydrogen/deuterium exchange (HDX) is a powerful technique to investigate protein conformational dynamics at amino acid resolution. Because HDX provides a measurement of solvent exposure of backbone hydrogens, ensemble-averaged over potentially slow kinetic processes, it has been challenging to use HDX protection factors to refine structural ensembles obtained from molecular dynamics simulations. This entails dual challenges: (1) identifying structural observables that best correlate with backbone amide protection from exchange and (2) restraining these observables in molecular simulations to model ensembles consistent with experimental measurements. Here, we make significant progress on both fronts. First, we describe an improved predictor of HDX protection factors from structural observables in simulated ensembles, parametrized from ultralong molecular dynamics simulation trajectory data, with a Bayesian inference approach used to retain the full posterior distribution of model parameters. We next presen...