Short-term effects of meteorological factors and air pollution on childhood hand-foot-mouth disease in Guilin, China

Abstract Background Previous studies have always focused on the impact of various meteorological factors on Hand–foot–mouth disease (HFMD). However, only few studies have investigated the simultaneous effects of climate and air pollution on HFMD incidence. Methods Daily HFMD counts among children aged 0–14 years in Guilin city were collected from 2014 to 2016. Distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were used to assess the effects of extreme meteorological factors and air pollution indicators, as well as the effects of different lag days on HFMD incidence. Furthermore, this study explored the variability across gender and age groups. Results Extreme temperatures, high precipitation and low-O 3 concentration increased the risk of HFMD. Hot effect was stronger and longer lasting than cold effect. Risks of rainy effect and low-O 3 effect continued to increase as lag days extended, with the maximum RR values: 1.60 (1.38, 1.86) (90th vs median) and 1.48 (1.16, 1.89) (1th vs median) at 0–14 lag days, respectively. By contrast, extremely high wind speed, low precipitation, low PM 2.5 and high O 3 exerted a certain protective effect on HFMD incidence. The corresponding minimum RR values were: 0.85 (0.74, 0.98) (90th vs median) at 0–14 lag days, 0.98 (0.97, 0.99) (10th vs median) at 0–14 lag days, 0.73 (0.61, 0.88) (1th vs median) at 0–14 lag days and 0.81 (0.73, 0.90) (99th vs median) at 0–7 lag days, respectively. Male children and children aged 0–1 years (followed by 1–3 years) were the most susceptible subgroups to extreme climatic effects and air pollution. Conclusions Our results indicated that daily meteorological factors and air pollution exert non-linear and delayed effects on pediatric HFMD, and such effects vary depending on gender and age. These findings may serve as a reference for the development of an early warning system and for the adoption of specific interventions for vulnerable groups.