Global Sensitivity Analysis for Design and Operation of Distributed Energy Systems

Abstract Distributed Energy Systems (DES) are set to play a vital role in achieving emission targets and meeting higher global energy demand by 2050. However, implementing these systems has been challenging, particularly due to uncertainties in local energy demand and renewable energy generation, which imply uncertain operational costs. In this work we are implementing a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model for the operation of a DES, and analysing impacts of uncertainties in electricity demand, heating demand and solar irradiance on the main model output, the total daily operational cost, using Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA). Representative data from a case study involving nine residential areas at the University of Surrey are used to test the model for the winter season. Distribution models for uncertain variables, obtained through statistical analysis of raw data, are presented. Design results show reduced costs and emissions, whilst GSA results show that heating demand has the largest influence on the variance of total daily operational cost. Challenges and design limitations are also discussed. Overall, the methodology can be easily applied to improve DES design and operation.