Monitoring spatial LULC changes and its growth prediction based on statistical models and earth observation datasets of Gautam Budh Nagar, Uttar Pradesh, India

It is well known and witnessed the fact that in recent years the growth of urbanization and increasing urban population in the cities, particularly in developing countries, are the primary concern for urban planners and other environmental professionals. The present study deals with multi-temporal satellite data along with statistical models to map and monitor the LULC change patterns and prediction of urban expansion in the upcoming years for one of the important cities of Ganga alluvial Plain. With the help of our study, we also tried to portray the impact of urban sprawl on the natural environment. The long-term LULC and urban spatial change modelling was carried out using Landsat satellite data from 2001 to 2016. The assessment of the outcome showed that increase in urban built-up areas favoured a substantial decline in the agricultural land and rural built-up areas, from 2001 to 2016. Shannon’s entropy index was also used to measure the spatial growth patterns over the period of time in the study area based on the land-use change statistics. Prediction of the future land-use growth of the study area for 2019, 2022 and 2031 was carried out using artificial neural network method through Quantum GIS software. Results of the simulation model revealed that 14.7% of urban built-up areas will increase by 2019, 15.7% by 2022 and 18.68% by 2031. The observation received from the present study based on the long-term classification of satellite data, statistical methods and field survey indicates that the predicted LULC map of the area will be precious information for policy and decision-makers for sustainable urban development and natural resource management in the area for food and water security.