Addressing multiple sources of uncertainty in the estimation of parrot abundance from roost counts: a case study with the Vinaceous-breasted Parrot (Amazona vinacea)

Population size is a key predictor of extinction risk and is critical to listing species in IUCN threat categories. The population size of parrots, one of the most threatened bird families, is often assessed using roost counts, which suffer from multiple sources of uncertainty that need to be addressed in monitoring efforts. To improve estimates of abundance for endangered Vinaceous-breasted Parrot ( Amazona vinacea ), we compared extensive roost counts over the whole range of the species (Argentina, Paraguay, Brazil) with an intensive regional survey designed to address five sources of uncertainty about parrot abundance in western Santa Catarina state (WSC), Brazil, in 2016 and 2017. We estimated regional-scale abundance using a sampling design that minimizes double counting and an N-mixture model of replicated count data, which accounts for imperfect detection, implemented in a Bayesian framework. The whole-range counts amounted to 3,888 and 4,084 individuals in 2016 and 2017, respectively; regional estimates were 945 50 and 1,393 ± 40 individuals, for the same two years. We found no evidence of population growth because the increase in numbers matched an increase in observation effort on both spatial scales. When extrapolating the WSC abundance estimate to three hypothetical geographical range areas of the species, under the simplifying assumption of homogenous density, we obtained values above the whole-range counts, but within the same order of magnitude, putting the global population size of Vinaceous-breasted Parrot in the thousands of individuals. Although our estimates of abundance and geographic range are larger than those currently reported by the IUCN, we suggest that Vinaceous-breasted Parrot remain in the Endangered IUCN threat category pending further investigation of population trends. We recommend that roost-monitoring programs for parrots consider and address sources of uncertainty through field protocols and statistical analysis, to better inform assessments of population size, trends, and threat status.