Analyzing the Spatial-temporal Structure of Cholera Diffusion in the Late 19(superscript th) Century of Japan

The authors take an integrated approach to exploring the spatial-temporal structure of cholera epidemics in modern Japan by using various investigative frameworks in which two GIS-based statistical methodologies assist in analyzing cholera diffusion dynamics. Numerical evidence and textual accounts abstracted from the country's 1890 National Cholera Report were aggregated into different geo-databases. The numerical data were used with temporal risk indices to detect changes in cholera morbidity across Japanese prefectures. Text accounts were used to model diffusion among Kyusyu counties with a geographically weighted regression (GWR). Six types of integrated characteristics of epidemic waves were isolated; these provided clues to recognizing temporal risk patterns of the disease among prefectures. The Kyusyu regional diffusion model explains why the northwestern part of Kyusyu region can be considered a geographical corridor to cities in other regions. The study results add value to the concept of representing modern Japan's geographic structure. Furthermore, the case study shows how GIS-based quantitative techniques may be used in a more flexible manner than previously possible in disease studies.