Agreement of Macroeconomic Forecasts in the Methodology of the System of National Accounts

In this paper the authors propose the model of agreement (financial balance) of macroeconomic forecasts, budget plans and balance of payments forecasts and the results of experimental calculations of this model for 2006—2008. The urgency of working out special instruments of such agreement is connected with increasing quality demands for medium-term budget plans. The proposed model is increasing the capacities of macroeconomic forecasts qualitative analysis; it explicitly contains resources of consumption and accumulation for major sectors of the economy and the economy as a whole. The financial balance is harmonized with the System of National Accounts and may be used for complex evaluation of the fiscal policy. In particular, it is possible to evaluate the influence of changes in tax regulation on macroeconomic and balance of payments indexes. The model contains net lending / net borrowing indexes for the sectors of the economy and on this base one can make conclusions about lending and borrowing capacities of the given sectors in future.