Adapting oak management in an age of ongoing mesophication but warming climate

Rising temperatures and variable precipitation events leading to droughts and floods will likelyincrease in frequency. We present climate models with bracketed scenarios of daily temperature and precipitationfrom 1980 to 2099 showing increasing heat and drought for much of the country throughout this century. Wethen model and map potential changes in suitable habitat for ~130 tree species (10 x 10 km to 20 x 20 km) inthe Eastern United States. Potential adaptability to changing climate was evaluated by literature assessment ofbiological and disturbance traits. Overall, trends show many species with shrinking habitat suitability but alsoseveral drought-tolerant species (especially oaks) with increased habitat. However, current oak regeneration isoften poor - hence management assistance is needed to ensure an ongoing, thriving oak component. Long-termresearch in Ohio has shown that prescribed fire and thinning can provide a successful path for oak regeneration,depending on the moisture regime within the landscape. These data-informed models of oak regenerationhighlight potential sites for oak regeneration across a 17-county region in southeastern Ohio. Silviculturaltreatments promoting future increasers (e.g., oak) and finding refugia for decreasers can then be devised as ameans to adapt to the changing climate.