Spatiotemporal clusters of schistosomiasis mortality and association with social determinants of health in the Northeast region of Brazil (1980-2017).

Abstract The Northeast region of Brazil includes the states with the highest prevalence for schistosomiasis mansoni (SM). This study aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns of SM mortality and to analyze this association with social determinants in health. We conducted an ecological time series study (1980–2017), using spatial analysis tools. Time trend analysis was performed by joinpoint regression. Maps representing mortality rates for SM were constructed and Moran Index was calculated to analyze spatial autocorrelation. A total of 13,720 deaths from SM were reported in this period. The states of Pernambuco (PE) (50.62%) and Alagoas (AL) (22.09%) had the highest mortality percentages. The mortality rate decreased from 1.28 to 0.63 along the time. Although most states showed a stable trend, Sergipe (SE) and Bahia (BA) showed increasing trends in the latest years. Additionally, the spatial analysis showed the concentration of municipalities that presented high risk in the coastal region of the states of PE, AL, SE, and BA. Lastly, mortality rates were correlated with social and educational indicators and hospitalizations for diarrhea. Altogether, these results demonstrate that some states showed stable or increasing trends of SM mortality in the last period of the studied time interval.