Interannual variability and future projection of summertime ocean wave heights in the western North Pacific

Abstract. A 70-yr (from 1985–1995 to 2055–2065) change of decadal mean summertime extreme significant wave heights (SWH) in the western North Pacific under CO 2 -induced global warming condition is projected. For this purpose, possible atmospheric fields under future global warming are derived from 10-yr time-slice experiments using a T106 AGCM. The future changes of SWH are assessed by an empirical approach, where possible changes of SWH are estimated using a linear regression model which shows an empirical relationship between SWH anomalies and an eastward shift of the monsoon trough. It is projected that SWH increases by up to ~0.4 m over a wide area of the western North Pacific.