Using Big Data for Predicting Freshmen Retention

Traditional research in student retention is survey-based, relying on data collected from questionnaires, which is not optimal for proactive prediction and real-time decision (student intervention) support. Machine learning approaches have their own limitations. Therefore, in this research, we propose a big data approach to formulating a predictive model. We used commonly available (student demographic and academic) data in academic institutions augmented by derived implicit social networks from students’ university smart card transactions. Furthermore, we applied a sequence learning method to infer students’ campus integration from their purchasing behaviors. Since student retention data is highly imbalanced, we built a new ensemble classifier to predict students at-risk of dropping out. For model evaluation, we use a real-world dataset of smart card transactions from a large educational institution. The experimental results show that the addition of campus integration and social behavior features refined using the ensemble method significantly improve prediction accuracy and recall.