Energy Policies Influenced by Energy Systems Modelling—Case Studies in UK, Ireland, Portugal and G8

A key objective of IEA-ETSAP is to assist decision makers in robustly developing, implementing and assessing the impact of energy and climate mitigation policies. This chapter focuses on four case studies, in which there is clear evidence of a direct link between the use of MARKAL and TIMES scenario modelling activities and the resulting policy decisions. The case studies selected assess how the (i) UK MARKAL model informed the development of energy and climate mitigation policy in the UK, focusing on the Energy White Paper in 2003, the Energy White Paper in 2007 and the Climate Change Act in 2008; (ii) Irish TIMES model informed the development of climate mitigation legislation in Ireland in 2014 and Ireland’s negotiating position regarding the EU 2030 Climate Energy Package in 2014; (iii) TIMES_PT model informed climate policy in Portugal in the last 10 years and has supported the design of climate mitigation policies; (iv) IEA ETP Model informed the G8 in responding to the 2005 Gleneagles Plan of Action and has supported the work of the Major Economies Forum and Clean Energy Ministerial. This chapter collates methodologies and results from these different case studies and summarizes some key findings regarding (i) policy frameworks and goals; (ii) how policy makers have been intertwined with the modelling tool during the modelling process; (iii) the role of the economic stakeholders dialogue; (iv) main insights from the modelling exercises; (v) lessons learnt: from effective contributions to real limitations and (vi) recommendations.