A novel comprehensive risk assessment method for sudden water accidents in the Middle Route of the South–North Water Transfer Project (China)

Abstract The Middle Route of the South–North Water Transfer Project in China consists of a long open canal and complex hydraulic structures. It provides drinking water for Beijing, Shijiazhuang, and other cities under extremely strict water quality requirements. In the recent decades, water pollution accidents have frequently occurred in water transfer projects. Scientific and effective risk assessment is needed to assess the impact on the overall emergency management, which should be considered to incorporate social, economic, and environmental issues in the timely response to and management of emergencies. In this study, we combine the Drivers–Pressures–State–Impact–Response model, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and coordinated development degree model into a comprehensive risk assessment tool. This new approach was tested on an emergency drilling simulation related to a sudden MRP water pollution accident in 2016. Based on the combined integration weight ranking, “water delivery status,” “pollution accident characteristics,” “town size,” and “public satisfaction” play prominent roles in the risk assessment. Especially, “town size” is identified as the most important influent factor. The Drivers–Pressures–State–Impact–Response model index system and comprehensive risk assessment method can be used to evaluate accidents more scientifically and versatile, which helps managers or experts to make faster and more efficient decisions.