Quantitative analysis of the public charging-point evolution: A demand-driven spatial modeling approach
2018
The coverage standard of the current publicly accessible charging infrastructure is insufficient
and considered as a major obstacle in the introduction to the market of plug-in electric vehicles
(PEVs). Therefore, it is necessary to establish a publicly accessible charging infrastructure that
features an appropriate coverage standard. The aim of this study is to support a spatially differentiated
and demand-driven infrastructure development that ensures a desired coverage
standard. For this purpose, we developed a calculation model which is applied to cumulated PEV
sales and the inventory of publicly accessible charging points, in Germany with the spatial resolution
of administrative districts. The required public charging-point evolution until 2040 is
calculated for a given PEV market diffusion. In 2015, an appropriate coverage standard was
achieved in only some regions of Germany; this means that the probability of finding access to a
free public charging point at the desired time of charging is at least 90%. When one considers the
entire country, however, it becomes clear that an additional 3600 publicly available charging
points are needed. By 2040, the provision of approximately 730,000 public charging points could
ensure an appropriate coverage standard for an estimated 17.8 million PEVs. The study results
show that the rate of public charging-point deployment can decrease once PEV sales increase.
The economically feasible operation of public charging infrastructure highly depends on the
average utilization rate and it appears to be challenging to reach profitability by only selling the
electricity.
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