Implications of population ageing for the Chinese productivity

AbstractSince 2000 when China entered the ‘ageing society’, the pace of ageing has speeded up. At the same time, traditional growth engines of the Chinese economy (i.e. export and investment) are losing momentum. Against this background, to what extent the expected demographic transformation would affect growth trajectory of the Chinese economy is of great interest. Among new growth engines, productivity has been receiving increasing attention among China’s top policy makers. In this paper, we try to identify both micro and macro effects of ageing on China’s productivity. In general, our research supports the hypothesis that more working experience and/or elder contributes to higher wage growth and total factor productivity, although with a reversed U-shaped pattern.