Local and regional spread of banana xanthomonas wilt (BXW) in space and time in Kagera, Tanzania

Banana is an important crop in the Kagera region of Tanzania. Banana Xanthomonas wilt (BXW) was first reported in Kagera in 2006, and is now an important limiting factor in banana production, since all cultivars are susceptible and infected plants can fail to produce fruit. BXW is caused by Xanthomonas campestris pv. musacearum (Xcm), which is spread by farm tools, infected planting materials, and pollinating insects. Practices that address Xcm dissemination, such as mat removal, debudding, and tool sterilization, have not prevented the spread of BXW in the region. Disease surveys were conducted in Kagera from 2007 to 2011 to assess BXW presence, monitor its intensity, and evaluate its socioeconomic impacts. Spatiotemporal clusters of BXW were analysed with ArcGIS and SAS. The relationship between BXW clusters and environmental variables was examined using bivariate correlations in SPSS, and two modeling approaches, MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) and logistic regression, were used to predict the potential distribution of BXW in Tanzania. Disease progress over time was best described with the Gompertz model. Significant clustering of BXW was observed in all years and hotspots were located in the Muleba, Karagwe, Misenyi, and Bukoba rural districts. These findings suggest that BXW spreads rapidly over short distances. BXW clusters were positively correlated with rainfall and negatively with temperature and altitude. According to MaxEnt, precipitation was the main factor associated with BXW development. MaxEnt and logistic regression predicted a wide potential distribution of BXW in Tanzania, since the climate in all banana-growing regions is conducive for its establishment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.