Estimate of the average timing for strong El Niño events using the recharge oscillator model with a multiplicative perturbation

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of tropical Pacific variability at interannual timescales. Through atmospheric teleconnections, ENSO exerts large influences worldwide, so that improved understanding of this phenomenon can be of critical societal relevance. Extreme ENSO events, in particular, have been associated with devastating weather events in many parts of the world, so that the ability to assess their frequency and probability of occurrence is extremely important. In this study, we describe the ENSO phenomenon in terms of the Recharge Oscillator Model perturbed by multiplicative deterministic chaotic forcing, and use methodologies from the field of Statistical Mechanics to determine the average time between El Nino events of given strengths. This is achieved by describing the system in terms of its probability density function, which is governed by a Fokker Planck equation, and then using the Mean First Passage Time technique for the determination of the mean time between extr...