The Unvirtuous Prediction of the Pessimistic Induction

The pessimist predicts that future scientific theories will replace present scientific theories. However, she does not specify when the predicted events will take place, so we do not have the opportunity to blame her for having made a false prediction, although we might have the chance to praise her for having made a true prediction. Her prediction contrasts with the astronomer’s prediction. The astronomer specifies when the next solar eclipse will happen, so we have both the chance to blame her for having made a false prediction and the chance to praise her for having made a true prediction. The pessimist’s prediction remains unvirtuous until she specifies when scientific revolutions will occur. This critical point applies no less to the selectivist’s prediction.