Influence of input data uncertainties on failure probability of TRISO-coated particle

2021 
Abstract TRISO coated particle fuel exhibits statistical variations and large uncertainties in physical configurations and material properties from particle to particle. Besides, the dependence of mechanical behavior and failure mechanism of the coating layer on multiple variables (such as density, porosity, anisotropy, fluence and temperature) further increase the complexity of TRISO fuel performance analysis. Consequently, the particle failure probability would change in a relatively wide range. In this paper, we evaluate the effect of input data uncertainties on particle failure probability. First, uncertainty ranges of input data are determined based on literature review and irradiation conditions. Second, a perturbation study on dimensional parameters and material properties is performed. Finally, variation ranges of failure probability upon different input parameters are determined. Results show that the failure rate is sensitive to kernel diameter, SiC thickness and irradiation-induced material properties.
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