The tornadoes of 30–31 May 2019 in south-Central Chile: Sensitivity to topography and SST

Abstract Tornadoes were reported in south-central Chile on 30 and 31 May 2019. To better understand the mechanisms that supported the organization and severity of the storms that generated them, a series of high-resolution sensitivity simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. In addition to a control simulation, three simulations were run that successively reduced the topography to 50%, 25%, and 0% of original height; three more simulations were run that increased SST by 2 K everywhere, decreased it by 2 K everywhere, and set all SSTs greater than 16 °C to exactly 16 °C; finally, two more simulations were run to explore the combined effects of SST changes and lower topography. Results indicate that as topography was lowered, a strong northerly low-level jet along the upslope of the Andes weakened and broadened in both vertical and horizontal extent. Values of 0–6-km bulk shear and 0–3-km storm-relative helicity (SRH) over the regions where the tornadoes occurred diminished with successive reduction of the topography. As a result, simulated brightness temperatures were warmer, and swaths of updraft helicity were fewer and shorter. These results indicate that on 30–31 May 2019, flow blocking by the Andes topography generated mesoscale wind shear conditions that favored tornadoes. When SSTs were increased, instability (quantified by convective available potential energy, CAPE) also increased, although primarily offshore, and updraft helicity swath length increased, indicating a positive impact on simulated storm intensity. When SSTs were decreased, CAPE also decreased along with a decline in magnitude of updraft helicity. These results suggest that SSTs also impact storm severity via an influence on atmospheric instability. When the two factors were combined, warmer SSTs were not able to overcome a reduction in wind shear associated with a decrease in the topography. This suggests that in south-central Chile, wind shear is more important than CAPE for tornadic thunderstorms, as has been found for other regions around the world).