Understanding Project Cancellation Risks in U.S. P3 Surface Transportation Infrastructure

Abstract Public private partnership (P3) projects can face many internal and external risks affecting their development and implementation. As a result, this research explores the understudied risk factors underlying the U.S.’ cancelled, deferred, and terminated (CDT) P3 projects. A database of CDT projects is developed. Of the projects identified as the U.S. surface transportation P3 population, 46% (31 out of 68) experienced cancellation, deferment or early contract termination. The research then applied a risk typology and a multi-case study method to the troubled cases to identify common risk factors. Data collection focused primarily on the identification of political (public and political voice, bureaucratic complexity) and economic risk factors. The most frequently identified factors across the 31 cancelled, deferred, or terminated cases include political opposition, local opposition, and inadequate demand projections. Since the paper studies the entire U.S. surface transportation P3 project population, the results serve to inform public agencies and private sector actors of possible friction points meriting consideration during P3 procurement planning.