The Rational Management of Catastrophic Risks

This chapter calls attention to a class of risks that could threaten the health and safety of significant populations of humans—a class of risks that generally has not had the benefit of consistent, quantitative, and comprehensive analyses for a realistic assessment and prioritization of their threat to society. It emphasizes how essential it is to have a systematic and integrated process for assessing the likelihood and consequences of such risks to maximize the opportunity for their mitigation. It also presents a methodology designed to assure that the risk assessments are based on real and visible evidence, including the lack of evidence, and explicitly account for the uncertainties involved. Furthermore, it explores the importance of the risks to the affected regions that couldn't be said before they were analyzed The principal benefit of a quantitative risk assessment is that the information such analyses generate can greatly enhance the making of decisions that can save lives and protect the environment. Also, regional risk assessments are important, as many risks are very location dependent even with respect to the same threat.