Alternate virtual populations elucidate the type I interferon signature predictive of the response to rituximab in rheumatoid arthritis

Background Mechanistic biosimulation can be used in drug development to form testable hypotheses, develop predictions of efficacy before clinical trial results are available, and elucidate clinical response to therapy. However, there is a lack of tools to simultaneously (1) calibrate the prevalence of mechanistically distinct, large sets of virtual patients so their simulated responses statistically match phenotypic variability reported in published clinical trial outcomes, and (2) explore alternate hypotheses of those prevalence weightings to reflect underlying uncertainty in population biology. Here, we report the development of an algorithm, MAPEL (Mechanistic Axes Population Ensemble Linkage), which utilizes a mechanistically-based weighting method to match clinical trial statistics. MAPEL is the first algorithm for developing weighted virtual populations based on biosimulation results that enables the rapid development of an ensemble of alternate virtual population hypotheses, each validated by a composite goodness-of-fit criterion.