Optimization of uncertain agricultural management considering the framework of water, energy and food

Abstract Synergetic development of water, energy and food is prerequisite for coping with issues of increment of global population, deterioration of ecological environment and aggravation of climate change. This study aims to develop a scenario-based type-2 fuzzy interval programming (STFIP) approach for planning agricultural water, energy and food (WEF) as well as crop area management. Uncertainties presented as interval numbers, scenarios and fuzzy sets as well as the dual uncertainties (i.e. interval-scenario and type-2 fuzzy interval) can be effectively tackled by the STFIP method. Then, a STFIP-WEFN model is developed and applied to maximize net agricultural profit with integrated management of productive resources for Henan Province, China. Solutions of different water resources, diverse energy resources and multiple agricultural crops in association with various water supply structures between current situation and future policy orientation are examined. Results disclose that: over the entire planning horizon, a) the total planting area of crops can increase from [129.3, 133.6] × 103 km2 to [132.0, 135.6] × 103 km2 by optimizing resources allocation; b) uncertainties existing in the WEFN system can lead to a change rate of the system benefit by 16.93%; c) the total planting area can increase by [4.00, 6.05] % when the groundwater ratio changes from 40% to 55%. These findings can help effectively optimize the existing planting structure and coordinate the development of Henan Province among water, energy, food, economy, society and environment.